Last week Treasury reported a $1.99 trillion deficit for the fiscal year that ended in September. That sent me back to the long-run numbers.

Federal revenue is about where it has always been. The deficit is a spending story.

Revenue has stayed in roughly the same band since 1970, through every major tax law.

It moved more with recessions than with legislation.

Spending is well above its long-run average.

In 1970 defense was the biggest line. Now Social Security and Medicare dwarf it, and both grow with an aging population, not a yearly vote.

Interest on the debt passed defense in 2024 for the first time since at least 1970. It grows on its own and buys nothing.

The only surpluses came in 1998 through 2001, when revenue peaked and spending bottomed out at the same time.
Deficits this big usually come with a recession. There wasn't one.